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The risk case is that the Court finds the OMT as presently structured in violation of German basic law, or imposes conditions that cannot be met without substantially weakening the program or creating different legal problems. Such a ruling would stop German institutions including the Bundesbank from participating in the OMT at least until it was restructured in a way that brought it into compliance with German constitutional law. Such an outcome would have serious effects on a variety of asset classes. We assign this outcome a low, but troublingly non-trivial probability of 5-10 per cent.

The risk case is that the Court finds the OMT as presently structured in violation of German basic law, or imposes conditions that cannot be met without substantially weakening the program or creating different legal problems. Such a ruling would stop German institutions including the Bundesbank from participating in the OMT at least until it was restructured in a way that brought it into compliance with German constitutional law. Such an outcome would have serious effects on a variety of asset classes. We assign this outcome a low, but troublingly non-trivial probability of 5-10 per cent.

Finally, the German high court could postpone judgment on the OMT and refer the case to the European Court Of Justice to rule on the legality of the OMT under European law before it rules on whether the OMT is constitutional under German law. This would constitute an interesting precedent. The German constitutional court has never taken such a decision before. Countries that are exiting full bailout programs in 2014, are currently expected to apply for a precautionary credit line and could potentially benefit from OMT, such as Portugal,[http://kpgroups.in/banana/Custom-Ravens-Jerseys.html <strong>Cheap Custom Ravens Jerseys</strong>], could come under renewed scrutiny. However,<a href="http://oldgarage.kr/433" rel="bookmark">U.S. federal shutdown postpones winter fuels assessment</ a>, the ECJ would be careful not to jeopardize the eurozone and would almost certainly find OMT in compliance with existing European law. Conditional on going down this path, it is very likely that the German Constitutional Court would subsequently find the OMT constitutional under German law. We rate the probability of referral at 20 per cent.</html>

Finally, the German high court could postpone judgment on the OMT and refer the case to the European Court Of Justice to rule on the legality of the OMT under European law before it rules on whether the OMT is constitutional under German law. This would constitute an interesting precedent. The German constitutional court has never taken such a decision before. Countries that are exiting full bailout programs in 2014, are currently expected to apply for a precautionary credit line and could potentially benefit from OMT, such as Portugal,[http://kpgroups.in/banana/Custom-Ravens-Jerseys.html <strong>Cheap Custom Ravens Jerseys</strong>], could come under renewed scrutiny. However,<a href="http://oldgarage.kr/433" rel="bookmark">U.S. federal shutdown postpones winter fuels assessment</ a>, the ECJ would be careful not to jeopardize the eurozone and would almost certainly find OMT in compliance with existing European law. Conditional on going down this path, it is very likely that the German Constitutional Court would subsequently find the OMT constitutional under German law. We rate the probability of referral at 20 per cent.</html>